Analysts Predict Apple to Outpace HP in Home Computer Sales thanks to iPad
By 
Research firm Canalys believes that Apple, Inc. is poised to overtake HP as the top-selling personal computer vendor in 2012, thanks to iPad sales.
The firm predicts that sales of the upcoming iPad 3 will be the tipping point to push Apple into the top spot.
Apple’s market share of global computer sales, including the iPad, jumped from 9 percent to 15 percent in 2011. However, analysts also predict that Apple’s momentum is in jeopardy due to the low-priced Kindle Fire and Barnes & Nobel Nook Tablet and that one way to stay on track is to generate new interest with a third generation model. According to Canalys Analyst Tim Coulling, “HP and Apple will fight for top position in Q4, but Apple may have to wait for the release of iPad 3 before it passes HP.”
Non-iOS tablets, and more specifically Android-based tablets, will suffer a setback this holiday season if Android 4.0, dubbed “Ice Cream Sandwich” does not make it into the market on time. Many consumers are wary of the current generation Android operating system for tablets and might hold off buying one if 4.0 is not released before the shopping season ends.
Canalys’ report should be taken with a grain of salt. For one, why would tablets be included in research regarding personal computers? Sure, tablets are for personal use, but most people think of an iPad as a mobile device, a “gadget,” if you will. Canalys’ decision to include tablets in the personal computer market, in my opinion, bloats Apple’s market share, giving them the illusion of top-spot status. Additionally, Canalys’ prediction assumes that the iPad 3 will generate some pretty huge sales numbers. Currently, Amazon’s Kindle Fire has captured 22 percent of future sales predictions, which is 18 percent more (Samsung maxing out at 4%) than any non-iOS company has ever held. If you follow that concept through, the assumption that the Kindle Fire will gain momentum while the iPad loses it is not far-fetched. This would put Apple at a disadvantage, making it even harder to overtake HP as the top PC vendor worldwide. The iPad 3 would have to blow doors down in order to stay on top.
Canalys’ research is well-developed and clearly presented. It is just interesting that the company decided to throw tablets in with the PC mix. Just something to think about as you ponder the world’s number one seller of personal computers and whether Apple will win out over HP in 2012.
